What if the dinosaurs had survived? Or Hitler won in 1945? Or the airplane had been invented 1,000 years earlier? Would there even be life on earth if the moon had failed to form? Science fiction writer Stephen Baxter canvasses the possibilities.
4.5 billion years ago: The Moon never formed
Life on Earth is very different; that is, if there’s any life at all
The young Earth was wrapped in a blanket of cloud. Through a hierarchy of impacts, cloud particles gathered into whizzing asteroid-like bodies. The collisions were spectacular; Earth’s final visitor was the size of Mars. Where the planets touched, a ring of fire formed, shattering the surface of both. Liquid rock gushed into space, and a glowing ring coalesced in orbit. Our Moon was born. Without it, and the gradual slowing of the tides, Earth’s day would be about eight hours. The air would be rich in oxygen but laden with carbon dioxide. Given the fast rotation, there would be violent winds andno trees. Animals would need strength, armour, low profilesand would have fast metabolisms. The Moon stabilised Earth’s rotation. Moonless Earth would have dramatic climate shifts - droughts, floods and ice ages.
65 million years ago: The dinosaur extinction does not happen
Earth is spared collision with asteroid
Sixty-five million years ago, the dinosaurs still ruled land and sea, as they had for more than 100 million years. Then a comet or asteroid struck our planet, wiping out 60 to 80 per cent of all species. Earth was unlucky to have been hit so late in its evolution. With no impact, the climate would have continued to evolve, species to rise and fall. Intelligence could have arisen, among birds or mammals, so they relied on brains rather than brute strength. One day, something similar to humans might have faced something like the dinosaurs. But we were hit and, although dinosaurs succumbed, some rat-like mammals dug themselves into the ash and survived.
476: Rome never falls
A Roman industrial revolution drives a unifying empire
Did Rome have to fall? After military defeats, the emperors tried to establish “natural boundaries”, such as the Rhine and Hadrian’s Wall, thus halting the empire’s growth and economic development. They were technologically advanced and came close to the invention of steam engines. But such things were treated only as toys, and the chance of a Roman industrial revolutionwas lost.
If Rome had survived it might have fought off Islam where Byzantium failed, and handled the Mongols better than their medieval successors. In the Americas they wouldn’t have practiced genocide as the British did, but assimilated, in the Roman way. In Europe, united in empire, there would be no feudalism, no chivalry - no parliaments - and no Great Britain.
875: Flight discovered 1,000 years early
Medieval Muslims use aircraft to conquer Europe
Just seven decades after the Prophet’s death, Islamic armies swept across north Africa, and from 711AD conquered Spain. Abbas Qasim Ibn Firnas was a Cordoban scholar who, aged 70, built a flying machine. The old man glided off a mountain. His machine lacked a tail; he landed hard, hurting his back. But if he had succeeded, the Moors could have harnessed their edge in technology to wage war on western Europe. Rapid expansion would, most likely, have extinguished western Christendom. And in a Moorish London, blond Saxon children would have learned the revelation of Mohamed.
1348: The Black Death is averted
Lives are saved, but at what cost to freedom?
In the 14th century, the Black Death came out of the heart of Asia. It affected all of Europe within a few years. In cities such as London, half the population died. It was monstrous, but the plague had first appeared in Europe in Roman times, so populations had some resistance. In all, just (just!) a third of Europeans were killed by the Black Death. Compare that to 95 per cent of native North Americans killed during the European conquests by measles, smallpox and plague - diseases to which they had no prior exposure. But could the Black Death have been averted? Arabic doctors had an understanding of hygiene, for example, far in advance of western European medicine. What if the Death had been stopped or diluted?
In the emptied world after the Death, the feudal systems came under strain. Suddenly there were too few folk to do the work; a bad lord could not keep employees. Prices changed as the population drop meant there was more than enough food. There were revolts as the rulers tried to regain control. The relationship of rulers to ruled was transformed, and the slow opening-up of the medieval world began. Our modern freedoms came out of the vast charnel house that was the Black Death.
1441: Chinese explorers discover America
The New World is found, 50 years before Columbus
At the time of the 15th-century early Ming Dynasty, the Chinese - who led the world in printing, gunpowder and navigation - went exploring. A Muslim eunuch from the Yunnan Province, called Zheng He, assembled a great exploratory navy. The first westward expedition, seeking new trading relationships, set off in 1405 (15 years ahead of the first great Portuguese voyages of discovery). The Chinese vessels were “treasure ships”, the biggest 400ft long and weighing 1,500 tons - decades ahead of anything in the west. His first expedition, which reached India, comprised 62 vessels carrying 28,000 men. In all, Zheng He made seven westward voyages, bringing home exotic novelties and striking terror and awe wherever he landed.
Zheng He could have beaten Columbus to the Americas but went home because of politics. The eunuch’s voyages were seen as a threat by the Confucian scholars who ran the imperial bureaucracy. In 1436 the Confucians convinced the Emperor that China didn’t need to deal with barbarian lands.
Source: independent
